Short Sales: Their Implication and Impact on the Real Estate Market

A Brief Overview

A discussion of short sales cannot be had without addressing the elephant in the room.  Between 1997 and 2006, a period of only nine years, on average US house prices rose a staggering 124%.[1] Appendix 1 illustrates historic home values as of 2006 as generated by Robert Shiller, a widely cited visionary who accurately predicted the burst of the housing bubble.  While the causes of the real estate bubble were multifaceted and inherently systemic, short sales were and continue to be one of the many ways for corporations and homeowners to deal with its aftermath.

Short sales in real estate borrow their name from the practice of short selling stock.  On the stock market a trader can borrow securities with the intention of buying the security back at a later date.  The trader who short sells or “shorts” a stock profits from a decline in the price of the stock by buying the stock back in the future at a lower price, in turn making a spread between the prices. Similarly, homeowners borrow against the equity of their home with the intention of buying back the house over a period of time, typically a 30-year mortgage.  The comparison ends there – a homeowner can only profit by selling their interest in their house when the value of the house has appreciated.

Appendix 1 is an inflation-adjusted graph.  Home values have indeed seen a nominal rise in value; the graphic summarizes that the average home in 1920 sold for $66,000 versus $199,000 in 2006 (a 201.5% increase).  Over time real estate prices in the US have always increased.  Home ownership is widely recognized as a vehicle for “forced saving;” typically saving-averse consumers who elect to pay a mortgage instead of rent are left with a considerable net worth when they complete their mortgage payments.  At the height of the 2007 mortgage boom, loans were being issued oftentimes to sub-prime buyers on the presumption that home prices would always increase.  Like in any bubble, when home prices crashed, they crashed hard.[2] While bankruptcy and subsequent foreclosure was a viable option for many, consumers turned to the negotiating table with their lenders for creative solutions.

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Why Startups Should Recruit College Students

I recently accepted a position at HubSpot, a venture-backed Internet marketing software company based in Cambridge. In my nine months interning at HubSpot, I have been mesmerized by the amount of brainpower and prowess that all employees possess – from other interns to higher management. Startups, or companies that function like them, are uniquely situated to recruit and employ college students, and I don’t think they do enough of it.

1.  College Students are not ‘Corrupted’

In a startup, thinking outside of the box is commonplace.  Their very culture asks employees to question the status quo, and not get caught up in bureaucratic decision-making. I have talked with numerous people who have worked at large, “old-school” companies before working at HubSpot, all of whom say, “You don’t know how good you have it.” There is definitely a necessary culture adjustment for employees coming from larger firms.

2.  20-Somethings are Cheap and Willing to Work Really Hard

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Communicating With Your Customers: A Marketer’s Analysis

This post was original written for the HubSpot Blog

One of my first tasks at HubSpot was to go back in time and use our data warehouses to determine when and how communication with customers occurred. Working in the Operations Department, the project was a great introduction to our various terminologies and systems. I drew out a physical timeline to scale for two “typical” customers since we have two main personas that we sell to – a business owner, and a marketing professional. The experience shaped the way that I think about both the company and our customers.

1.  How Much Communication is Too Much?

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The Sinking of QE2?

On November 3rd, 2010, Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve, announced a planned $600B buy-back of US long-term treasury securities deemed “Quantitative Easing 2” or “QE2.” With the announcement of QE2, the total amount of quantitative easing will reach an estimated $2.7T by the end of the third quarter of 2011.[1] The looming question that remains is whether or not QE2 is working – more specifically, whether it meets its intended goal of increasing lending and borrowing to spur overall economic growth.

Fundamentally, quantitative easing increases the money supply by purchasing large amounts of securities, in this case government treasury bonds. With the excess capital that floods into the marketplace, financial institutions will then have more capital available to lend, thus increasing borrowing and spending in the greater economy. Quantitative easing is usually employed only after all other policy tools have been employed: open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements. While quantitative easing may sound like the perfect answer, it does come at the very steep cost of inflation.

In order to determine whether QE2, a second attempt at a last-stitch effort, is working, we must look to and speculate upon key economical metrics.  Between November 3rd when the plan was announced and November 6th, the S&P 500 jumped 101 points or 8% from 1,185 to 1.286.[2] By November 17th, the S&P 500 was down to 1,175, but by December 3rd, reached 1,225. It is important to note that the market’s reaction was immediately bullish. If one holds that the markets are efficient, the information was absorbed immediately, and QE2 was effective. However, according to Dr. Tientip Subhandij of the Bangkok Post, “…the impact [quantitative easing] has on markets and the economy – can be so long that we may not even notice whether it’s working at all.”[3] Since the financial institutions that are left to circulate the additional capital in the market cannot be identified or tracked, we will not know if and when the lending has actually occurred, and what the overall impact of said lending is.  While there is no surefire way to attribute economic revival to a particular Federal Reserve policy measure, we do know that the economy has by no means rebounded since December 3rd.

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11.6″ MacBook Air Review

Why I Sold my MacBook Pro & iPad

I loved my 12” PowerBook G4. It was an awesome form factor, and weighed only 4.6 pounds. I bought it only six years ago, and now I have a machine that’s exactly half the weight, is exponentially faster, is more durable, has more pixels (better resolution), and allows me to do everything I need it to.

When I purchased my 11.6” MacBook Air (1.6ghz, 4GB RAM, 128GB SSD), I simultaneously sold my 13” MacBook Pro and iPad. I don’t regret it for a second. All in all, I saved about $300 and arguably simplified two devices into one. I used the iPad mostly to consume media, and it was great at that, but so is my iPhone. I found it much more convenient to read the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and assorted blogs from my phone than on the iPad. The iPad doesn’t travel around in your pocket, and is very awkward if not impossible to hold while multi-tasking (ok…or eating your Lucky Charms). The iPad has a similar footprint to the MacBook Air, and still weighs 1.5 pounds. For an extra .8 pounds, I now have a fully functional machine that boots in under ten seconds and has a full keyboard. To me, it’s a no brainer.

Performance

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Legal Analysis of Lohan v. E*Trade

Introduction & Facts

Lohan's 2007 Mugshot

On February 7th, 2010 E*Trade Securities LLC, an online financial services company, aired a commercial during the Super Bowl.[1] As part of an ongoing campaign, the commercial featured talking babies comically discussing their use of E*Trade software. In the ad, a boy tells a girl via webcam from their respective cribs that he could not call the previous evening because he was using E*Trade to “diversify my portfolio and take control.” The girl responds, “and that milk-a-holic Lindsay wasn’t over?” The boy says, “Lindsay?” and then a new baby girl enters the scene saying, “milk-a-what?” concluding the commercial.

On March 8th, 2010 Lindsay Lohan filed suit against E*Trade Securities LLC claiming that “…the ditzy, ‘milk-a-holic’ baby girl named Lindsay is modeled after [Lohan] and improperly invoked her likeness, name, characterization, and personality without permission, violating her right to privacy.”[2] Lohan claimed $50 million in compensatory damages, as well as $50 million in exemplary damages.[3] The suit was brought in Nassau County Supreme Court in the State of New York. In the complaint issued by Lohan’s lawyers, Stephanie Ovadia and Anand Ahuja, the main argument is that: “24.  The defendants took the plaintiff’s name and characterization and used in “ADVERTISEMENTS” without plaintiff’s consent and authorization,”  “28. Defendants have acted knowingly, willfully and in bad faith,” and “29. Defendants, and their agents, have committed tortuous acts within the State of New York, which and are causing injury to the plaintiff.”[4]

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The End of the Golden Age: is Gold the Next Bubble?

'Age of Gold' by Merle Mainelli Poulton

Ancient Greek mythology divided the Age of Man into five different eras, the first being the ‘Golden Age.’ Noted for its peace and tranquility, the Golden Age represented a time where one could do no wrong, and neighbors lived harmoniously with each other.[1] Since roughly 2001, speculators in the gold market have experienced the capitalist version of a Golden Age.[2] Even through turbulent economic times, gold prices have gone through the roof, hitting all-time nominal highs of over $1,350 per ounce. If Greek mythology continues to lend itself as a metaphor, it’s all downhill from here. By the time the fifth and final stage of man was reached, “mankind was hopelessly violent and cruel.” So, will gold prices continue to climb, extending the Golden Age even in the midst of a possible ‘double-dip’ recession, or will it be the next big bubble?

Only time can tell, and students of financial markets are doing no more than speculating on a commodity whose prices themselves seem purely speculative. Looking back to the most recent catastrophic bubble, the mortgage-backed security (MBS) bubble that burst in 2007, there are some notable similarities to gold. First, both mortgage-backed securities and gold outperformed the S&P 500 consistently on a year-by-year basis.  Second, both are asset-backed, the difference being that one generally buys gold or gold Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs) outright, whereas MBS pools were hundreds or thousands of packaged mortgage commitments to repay long-term debt. MBS pools and gold investments both relied on the value of the underlying asset to increase over time. Finally, both MBSs and gold were seen as inflationary hedges. Although commodities such as gold are classic inflationary hedges, MBSs represented real assets that one could use to diversify their portfolios in times of economic uncertainty.

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Boston University: A Three Year Retrospective

An organization loses its spark when it becomes more and more distanced from its supposed mission. Boston University has “jumped the shark” long ago. Every decision made from the top down should have a checkbox next to it asking, “Will this decision better the quality of the education that we offer, or enhance student life?”

Within the University there exists a department discretely named, “Auxiliary Services,” whose sole charge is to increase revenue for the school. While some of what they do is certainly beneficial (working to bring food franchises to the School), their sole aim is to generate the most revenue possible.

The Office of Housing is also a “profit-generating” group. Their only care is that every room on campus is filled, and that every cutting measure has been taken (closing the low-overhead, work-study run fitness rooms in East Campus citing the fitness center 1.2 miles away). The discrepancy between room qualities on campus is enormous; a spacious air conditioned double within a suite (Shelton) costs the same as a cramped double with a floor bathroom (Warren). Some buildings haven’t been adequately maintained for tens of years, with one coat of paint on top of the other.

The underlying issue is that the Offices of Housing and Residence Life respectively report to separate leaders within the University. There should not be an inherent disconnect between those providing the living spaces for students, and those charged with providing a safe, quiet space for students to study and sleep in. Paperwork is done almost all manually, except for a University-wide system that has the appearance and usability of MS DOS (white text on a black background with no user interface).  Work requests are all filled out manually, with carbon copies being hand delivered to Facilities Management (who have no online presence whatsoever). The departments are almost literally living in the Stone Age.

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What Can FourSquare Do For Me?

Back in my day, four square was a game played by bored extended-day kids at camp. I’m still trying to wrap my head around the usefulness of the new “social network” that has spawned millions of users “checking in” at countless locations around the world. But what’s in it for me?  Well, I’m going to spend the next week finding out. Conveniently, the Boston FourSquare Leaderboard resets every Sunday night at 11:59PM.  Starting at midnight, when I will most likely be asleep, my quest to better understand FourSquare will coincide with my wanting to be listed in the top 100 on a meaningless Leaderboard.  That’s right, I’m turning this into a competition, with all of Boston.

I can’t help but laugh at the hilarious intro video that FourSquare has on their website (click “learn more”).  The video entices me by saying that FourSquare can/will:

  • “Unlock my world.”
  • “Be more aware of the incredible things around me.”  (By staring down at my phone and waiting for the GPS to locate me)
  • “Find happiness just around the corner.”  (Really?!  Every corner?)
  • Link to my Address Book, Twitter, and Facebook.  (Yay!  More things stealing my address book and posting real time updates of my location to the world!).
  • Tell my friends where I am by checking in.  (Again, it’s like Twitter but more automated).
  • “Get inside information.”  (Like…?)
  • Add new locations (Wait a minute, weren’t you just giving me inside information?  Now you don’t even have the place listed?!)
  • “Unlock badges and earn points, check out how many you can rack up.”  (Err…if you say so?  Man, I just really want to get on this leaderboard…AND I DON’T KNOW WHY!)
  • “Check in at a location more than anyone else, and you could become the mayor.”  (Goal:  become the mayor of the Church of Scientology that I walk by every day)
  • Get specials offers (Will report back on if this actually happened).
  • “Use FourSquare wherever you go.”  (They named a bathroom at work after a guy.  It’s a location on FourSquare.  So, I guess they’re right.)

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Modern Mad Men: What Would Don Draper Do?

It’s official:  we live in a data-driven society.   A study released last year found that adults are exposed to screens for about 8.5hrs on any given day.  The last Presidential campaign was the first time we saw a candidate effectively leverage the Internet to empower and excite his voter-base.  Information now flows nearly instantaneously, and corporate culture is faltering in its attempt to adapt to the digital age.  Perhaps this is why we find the acclaimed AMC TV Series Mad Men so enamoring.   The show takes place in the early 1960’s at a fictional advertising agency on Madison Avenue in New York City.

We look back at a time where corporate culture is not quite unrecognizable, but a shocking satire of the modern-day office environment.  Just as comical as the workplace environment, we find the protagonist, Creative Director Don Draper, trying to make some pretty hard advertising pitches.   After the Federal government banned doctor testimonials in cigarette advertisements, Draper complains, “All I have is a crush-proof box, and four out of five dead people smoked your brand.”  Draper is an enigma: mysterious, dark, cutting-edge, and simply ingenious.  His brilliance is respected so much that when he disappears on a business trip for weeks across the country he is welcomed back without question.

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